M1 to launch own fibre broadband company

Launch of corporate OpCo
As noted during its 2Q11 results, M1 plans to launch its own NGNBN operating company (OpCo). Its rationale is to offer customised solutions, lower its opex and increase its competitiveness. The added wrinkle is that M1 will now be pursuing its own residential OpCo, although it will not address the entire nine central offices that cover the NGNBN network.

The move to set up its own OpCo emanates from several developments: 1) equipment cost has fallen from S$200 to S$80, making it more affordable for M1 to offer its own residential OpCo; 2) access costs could be cut by S$6/month and S$25/month for the residential and commercial portions; 3) time-to-market could be speeded up as more of the value chain will be controlled by M1; and 4) M1 can customise solutions, choosing the speeds it offers customers rather than be restricted to the speeds provided by NucleusConnect.

Long Term Evolution. M1 still hopes to launch nationwide LTE by 1Q12, assuming LTE and sets are ready by end-2011. The main thrust will be dongles as they are more readily available. M1 said LTE could bring about the possibility of tiered pricing for its data offerings.

Economy and capital management. M1 has yet to feel the pinch from heightened economic risks. But if the economic gloom persists till the announcement of its full-year results, we believe capital management would be less than likely.

Vodafone. The loss of the Vodafone arrangement will not have too much of an impact, according to M1. We understand, however, that it would lose out in terms of some global accounts and also not enjoy preferred roaming rates overseas.

Results preview
M1 is due to announce its 3Q11 results on 17 Oct. We expect a net profit of S$44m-45m, up 3-5% qoq and 11-14% yoy. This is on the back of 2-3% qoq and yoy increases in revenue as handset sales should pick up after the sharp fall in 2Q11, postpaid revenue should grow from higher data contributions and fixed broadband begins to contribute more. Margins should be stable although there should have been higher handset costs and SAC than 2Q11.