Why NOL's 2015 recovery is heavily dependent on newbuilding orders

Will this road to recovery be successful?

According to Nomura, despite the smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and recent rebound in spot freight rates, they remain cautious on the container shipping sector, as they believe that freight rates have peaked, especially given the lack of peak season (mild at best). 

They estimate that losses are likely for the rest of this year and into 2014 before recovering in 2015.

Here's more from Nomura:

However, we think a 2015 recovery is dependent on potential newbuilding orders, as newbuilding orders placed today would be delivered in 2015.

For example, only 0.42mn TEU of container newbuildings were ordered in 2012, but YTD newbuilding orders are already 0.99mn TEU.

We believe that container lines are considering ordering 16,000-18,000 TEU-sized newbuildings due to the lower operating costs, and NOL did not rule out potential orders for these vessels.