Why Keppel is likely to lose to Sembcorp in recent jack-up rig race

SMM's CJ-70 track record is impressive.

Accordng to CIMB, Upstream has reported that Noble Drilling is in pole position to secure a CJ-70 jack-up rig drilling chartering contract from Statoil, which could be announced soon. 

This could be followed by the award of rig construction to the Statoil-nominated yards of SMM and Daewoo Shipbuilding. The contract is said to be worth about US$600m for delivery
in 2016.

Here's more from CIMB:

Danish Maersk Drilling is also looking to invest in two more GustoMSC CJ-70 design jack-up rigs for delivery in 2016. The driller is exploring its options with SMM and Daewoo, after its option with KEP lapsed.

KEP is at the moment building three CJ-70 rigs for Maersk, to be delivered in 2013-15. 

We believe SMM stands a high chance of winning in view of its track record for CJ-70. It had delivered one CJ-70 rig (West Elara) in 2011 and is building another unit (West Linus) for Seadrill, for delivery by end-2013.

That said, Daewoo is new in the jack-up market and may sacrifice margins to break into this market.