Here is the biggest threat to NOL on its way to recovery

Freight rates for 2Q13 have dipped.

Citing the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index, OCBC reported that freight rates for 2Q13 thus far have declined quite considerably across most routes – with the exception of the Intra-Asia route – and this could hurt the ongoing recovery process for NOL.

But macro-data and low fuel cost are encouraging. 

Here's more from OCBC:

However, global macro-data such as US retail sales are showing signs of a revival, we are hopeful that the dip in rates is only a temporary blip, and that they recover to similar levels as a year ago.

In addition, we remain encouraged by the continued efforts by the main liners to push through rate hikes and manage capacity on trade routes ahead of the contracting season.

As for bunker fuel prices, the downward trend is still intact and should prove conducive for NOL in the coming quarters.