Ka-ching! Asian private consumption resilient with 5% growth

What the numbers say: Asian private consumption remained resilient, growing at around 5%y/y (excluding China) in 1Q11. Meanwhile, retail sales, one of the best monthly gauges on private consumption, are largely robust across the region. This is particularly true in Hong Kong, where sales continue to be supercharged by strong tourist spend, and Indonesia.

What they mean: In Asia, private consumption typically accounts for 50-60% of GDP, with China and Singapore being the main exceptions to this. Hence small changes in consumption tend to have a large impact on GDP.

12-month outlook: We expect Asian private consumption to remain solid this year, underpinned by positive income growth and a stable job market. Consumption is a relatively stable component of GDP growth, except during severe downturns that see sharp job market deterioration.