Declining consumer demand, inflation to bite retail sales’ full-year growth: RHB

Retail sales are expected to grow 10% in 2022 from 11.1% in 2021.

The growth of retail sales this year could shrink on the back of dissipation of consumer demand and inflationary pressures, RHB said.

In its report, it expects retail sales to increase 10% in 2022 from 11.1% expansion in 2021 due to tighter labour market and gradual reopening of Asia’s borders.

The retail sales, however, may slow down to 4.5% year-on-year in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022 “as the low-base effect dissipates whilst consumers could scale down on discretionary expenditure as inflation pressures bite.” 

“Therefore, on the back of higher inflation in the year ahead, we look for retail sales momentum to slow further in 2H22 and may even contract in Q422,” it added.

The front loading effect expected goods and services tax hike on 1 January 2023 may mitigate these downside risks, said RHB.