Private home sales to fall below 20,000 in 2024: real estate analysts

There could be as little as just 15,000 to as much as 19,000 private homes sold in 2024.

Demand for private housing is likely to be conservative in 2024, according to real estate analysts.

The sales volume of new private homes is expected to fall between just 7,000 and 9,000 during the whole year, forecasts Leonard Tay, Knight Frank Singapore’s head of research.

Analysts expect the overall sales of private homes might fall lower than 20,000 units.

Knight Frank’s Tay expects private home sales to just be between 15,000 to 18,000 for the whole year of 2024 with prices growing by just a moderate 3% to 5%.

Meanwhile, OrangeTee&Tie chief researcher and strategist Christine Sun expects almost the same volumes, at just between 16,000 to 19,000 units in 2024, excluding executive condominiums; with prices rising by between 3% to 6% throughout the year.

This is a result of ample supply of private homes in the market. Over 21,500 units were completed in 2023, and more units are expected to come in for 2024, Knight Frank’s Tay noted.

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Meanwhile, Sun says that the decline in sales may be due to resale volumes not rising despite more private homes being completed, which she says might be a result of the ABSD being increased.

“Most homes are now bought for either occupation or long-term rental income and not for resale or short-term investment,” Sun said.

However, Tay said that prices in the new launch market will remain elevated due to committed land and construction costs. This might result in two-tier pricing with the gap between the primary and secondary market widening, he warned.

“Although experienced and savvy investors familiar with Singapore’s private residential scene, will remain nimble, on the lookout for residential opportunities in popular areas where new supply has been limited, the growing expectations of interest rate cuts would likely cause some potential homebuyers to wait until the cost of borrowing comes down before purchasing homes,” Tay said.