Home sales surge an excellent 123%

How will the latest cooling measures affect this?

According to CIMB, Dec sales rebounded after dipping in Nov, led by demand for executive condominiums (EC) and investment demand. This brings the 2012 tally to 27,191 units sold, up 41% from 2011. Friday’s policy measures should dent volumes in the next few months.

CIMB said it would watch for rebates not reflected in list prices, and sweeteners to boost volumes. Recent ground checks suggest 7% rebates for mass-market projects, La Fiesta and Eco Sanctuary. 

About 1,410 new private homes were sold in Dec, a 30% mom rebound after dipping in Nov following Oct's loan measures, and +123% yoy off a low Dec 11 base when an Additional Buyers Stamp Duty was introduced.

This brings 2012 new sales to 27,191 units, 41% above 2011 levels. Some 849 EC units were sold, led by the launch of Citylife@Tampines and The Topiary. Other projects were
from the central region, Echelon and D'Leedon, with the latter moving units after price cuts. Island-wide take-up remained strong at 1.39x of units launched.

Here's more from CIMB:

We maintain our expectation of 5-10% ASP declines for 2013. EC take-up has been propped up by developer creativity, with demand for Echelon at Alexandra stemming from second and third home buyers, swayed by its proximity to MRT stations.

Friday's seventh round of policy measures, however, could soon reverse this. Show flats were largely empty last weekend, with agents dangling 7% rebates for Eco Sanctuary and La Fiesta.

The latter reportedly sold fewer than 5% of the 400 units launched during the weekend. News reports indicate 5-7% cuts in prices for the launch of Q Bay Residences this weekend. We think rebates and other sweeteners are imminent.