Chart of the Day: This graph rubs the ugly truth about home supply in everyone's faces

We've all been warned.

Analysts have long been getting the jitters from looming housing oversupply, and now these nightmares of supply glut are coming true.

According to OCBC, including HDB, DBSS and EC completions, we anticipate that 50.0k, 49.7k and 73.6k homes will come into the physical supply in FY14, FY15 and FY16, respectively. 

Here's more from OCBC:

Assuming a 6.0m population target by 2020 from the latest Population white paper, we forecast average population growth at ~86k individuals per annum from 2014-20.

Assuming a conservative 3 persons per household, this translates to an incremental demand of ~29k physical homes per year, which points to a fairly clear physical oversupply situation ahead.

We saw the URA residential price index fall 1.3% and 0.9% in 1Q14 and 4Q13, respectively, after nine quarters of sub-2% appreciation before that.

The mood of the market has been increasingly cautious after the latest TDSR requirements and we believe that significant headwinds, i.e., a physical oversupply situation over FY14-16 and an anticipated interest rate uptrend after mid-FY15, will likely keep the market on its back foot.