2014 new home sales predicted to moderate to 13,000-14,000 units

Property bull run set to end, says analyst.

According to Maybank Kim Eng, looking forward to 2014, it reiterates its belief that conditions would likely culminate in a ~10% decline in private residential property prices, led by the mass market segment.

Maybank also expects new home sales to moderate to 13,000-14,000 in 2014, down from the estimated ~16,000 units to be sold in 2013. In other words, Maybank thinks the property sector will tip next year.

Here's more:

After almost four years of uninterrupted increase, residential prices in Singapore are finally set to dip in 2014 in our view.

Following seven rounds of property cooling measures since 2009, the QoQ increase in the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) Residential Property Price Index (PPI) is moderating. However, the PPI for 3Q13 was still 3.9% higher than a year ago.

The number of new private homes sold by developers also declined by 30% in 11M13 to 14,964 units (excluding Executive Condominiums or ECs) from 21,288 in 11M12. We expect 2013 to end with sales of ~16,000 units, ie, ~30% drop from 2012’s robust figure of 22,698 units.