Fire sale alert: Home prices to plunge 10% as developers struggle to clear over 12k units in 2015

Prices will reach levels last seen in 2009.

Developers will be the first to blink in the battle for lower residential property prices. According to Macquarie Research, private home prices will plunge by as much as 10% next year as developers struggle to clear and increasing number of unsold inventory.

Macquarie estimates that developers will have to clear around 12,000 units next year, causing prices to sink to levels last seen in 2009.

“Developers typically hold a certain level of inventory and tolerate a certain amount of unsold units, giving them the opportunity to capture the property up-cycle. However, current “inventory”, measured by the ratio of the total number of unsold and unlaunched units with sales licences as a % of near term supply (total unsold and unlaunched units) is too high,” noted Macquarie.

Macquarie further estimates that prices may inch up by 1% in 2016, which should alleviate margin pressure. Some cooling measures may also be relaxed especially if the government calls for an early election in 2015.