Lackluster interim results ahead for China property

Trends solidify this not-so-sunny forecast.

With interim results coming soon for China property, it is believed that they will be generally lackluster, due to various trends that have led to the forecast.

According to a research note from Maybank Kim Eng, these trends are: higher gearing HoH due to slower-than-expected cash collection ratio, and most developers maintaining contract sales targets for 2014 w/ a few exceptions (potentially Hopson, Sino-Ocean).

Further, another trend was also noted in the form of lower margin guidance for some that have not guided down.

The report said that it must be recalled that Agile, CG and Shimao already guided lower GPMs before blackout.

Here's more from Maybank Kim Eng:

Est 5-8% YoY profit growth for 1H: For the sector, we expect 5-8% YoY growth in underlying profit for 1H14, with COLI, KWG, and Shimao to post highest YoY core earnings growth.

So far, a few developers including COGO (81 HK, NR) and Greenland (337 HK, NR) announced negative profit warnings.

We believe the interim earnings represent more backward looking sales and might not represent full year’s picture if there are some outlier projects being delivered.

In our view, future margin outlook and the cashflow situations are key.

A good number of China developers under our coverage would have to guide more negative operating cashflow for this year and likely to slow down either new landbanking or new starts GFA to maintain healthy cashflows.

Margin-wise, we see there could be some downside risks to consensus for Yuexiu Prop and Agile.

Our 2014F earnings for Sunac, Franshion, and Agile are 5% or more above Bloomberg consensus while 8% lower for Yuexiu Prop and 7% lower for Sino-Ocean.

Over 1M, property stocks under our coverage rose an average 21%.

There should be better stock entry points given some lackluster results pending in August.