Retention of heavyweight ministers key to market stability

The market is not seen to react adversely should 1-2 GRCs be lost and vote share falls to between 58-61% in the General Elections, AmFraser said.

The financial adviser also factored in their election market forecast the addition of at most five seats to the opposition’s current 10 seats.

AmFraser said that the STI should continue to move up with pullbacks along the way to test its Jan 3280 year’s high with strong support at 3110-30 and 3150-70 in the “likely event” that PAP share of vote remains above 61%.

The firm forecasts PAP getting 67-68 seats with opposition at 19-20 seats in the coming General Elections.

“With 12 SMCs this time, opposition can win back 4 seats or more if the AP share of votes fall to the 61% region. Despite a much higher 75.3% and 66.6% PAP shares of votes in 2001/2006, the opposition still managed to cling to Hougang and Potong Pasir,” AmFraser said.

According to the financial adviser, now that the 2 popular MPs Chiam See Tong and Low Thia Khiang are helming GRC teams, the opposition may have to face a closer fight especially Potong Pasir where PAP candidate is looking to be third time lucky.

“Whether [a] chance [will be given] to higher caliber opposition candidates to prove their mettle and kicking them out in the 2016 polls if they do not perform, remains to be seen,” AmFraser said.