China to overtake the US as the largest trading nation in the world by 2025

Chinese trade volume is expected to grow an amazing 146% in 14 years’ time.

China is set to overtake the U.S. as the largest trading nation in the world by 2025, accounting for 13% of global trade, according to a new quarterly report, HSBC Trade Forecast.

Chinese trade volume is expected to grow 146% by the end of 2025, while trade is predicted to grow about four times faster than the global rate from now until 2015, the study shows.

A partner survey of international traders, the HSBC Trade Confidence Index, shows that while sentiment among China’s traders fell to a neutral level from six months earlier, nearly 80% of Chinese importers and exporters still expect stable or increased trade volumes.

Hong Kong’s role as a leading trade route between Mainland China and the rest of the world will ensure the city sustains its current share of world trade (2.9%) in 2025, ahead of the U.K., South Korea and Singapore, according to HSBC Trade Forecast.

Even as Hong Kong traders are the most cautious in Asia over the short-term, nearly 75% of those polled expect import-export volumes to stay the same or to rise in the coming half-year, the HSBC Trade Confidence Index shows.

Albert Chan, HSBC’s Head of Commercial Banking, Hong Kong, said: “Hong Kong and Mainland China are well positioned to benefit from robust growth in world trade in coming years. While short-term uncertainty has dampened confidence, the Asian region is expected to drive trade growth in the longer-term.”

Despite the current climate of economic uncertainty, world trade volumes are expected to grow 73% by 2025 and international trade activity will expand, on average, by just under $1trillion1 a year between now and 2015, according to research commissioned by HSBC.