Will Singapore’s PMI turn expansionary soon?

In August, PMI edged up to 49.9.

Despite three consecutive months of marginal improvement in Singapore’s headline Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), analysts still believe it is too early to call for a manufacturing recovery or a bottom to the electronics sector’s current downcycle cycle.

According to UOB Senior Economist, Alvin Liew, the sub-50 print for August shows that  “Singapore still faces headwinds in the manufacturing sector as many key sub-indices of the PMI remain in contraction territory.”

“As for the smaller contraction in the Aug electronics PMI, we remain hesitant to call for a trough in the current electronics downcycle but the latest improvements in order backlog for both the headline and electronics sector is an encouraging sign for demand recovery,” Liew said.

On the flip side, Liew believes the headline PMI could turn expansionary or above 50.0 in the next few months. Before such, Liew said Singapore will still see a few more months of sub-50 PMI prints for the electronics sector.

“We maintain our forecast for Singapore’s 2023 manufacturing to contract by 5.4%,” Liew said.