Will November be the month Singapore’s NODX registers a decent jump?

Signs of bottoming-out are slowly appearing.

After 10 months of non-oil domestic exports registering a paltry 1% jump on average, it’s easy to assume that November’s numbers would be no different, with the weak global demand yet to recover.

However, analysts from DBS say there are some reasons to be optimistic about last month’s figures, signalling a rebound from a decline of 0.5% in October.

“The headline number due this Thursday morning is expected to register an expansion of 1.9% (YoY),” DBS said.

DBS explains that the first ten months of 2015 were marred by China’s deceleration and the tepid recovery in the US, resulting in the choppy business environment and poor export performance.

“Though the depreciation in the SGD may have provided some valuation lift to the number, the drag from demand weakness has obviously dominated,” DBS said.

Nevertheless, DBS says the market is showing some signs of bottoming-out.

“Although a strong improvement is still lacking, the PMIs of all key markets are showing some tentative stabilisations. A more pronounced improvement can be expected once the impact of Fed’s monetary normalisation is fully digested by the markets and uncertainties revolving around China’s deceleration are addressed. So for exporters, winter is coming but hopefully spring will follow,” DBS said.