Global semiconductor spending bleaker for 2012

What made Gartner revise its projections downward to only $309 million?

Less optimistic PC production growth next year and the supply chain disruption resulting from the Thailand disaster will dampen semiconductor revenues, says Gartner in its Q4 forecast update.

Gartner says this downward revised figure reflects a slower 2.2% growth estimate compared to its previous 4.6% growth forecast in Q3.

"With continuing concern over the future of the eurozone affecting the global economy, the high degree of uncertainty impacting spending by both consumers and enterprises looks set to continue, bringing with it significant implications for the semiconductor industry," said Bryan Lewis, research vice president at Gartner. "The near-term forecast is being shaped not only by economic forces but by an inventory correction, manufacturing oversupply and natural disasters," says Gartner.

"PC production unit growth for 2012 is projected to increase 5 percent, which is down from 10.1 percent growth in the previous forecast. While the weak economic backdrop played its part in this reduction, Gartner said that the floods that hit Thailand this year resulted in a hard-disk drive (HDD) shortage that has slowed the PC market even further. Gartner estimates that the supply chain disruption that resulted from the tragedy in Thailand meant that the PC production will be limited by HDD availability over the next few quarters until the HDD industry can resume full production," Gartner added.

"Gartner's 4Q11 forecast does revise the mobile phone production unit growth up slightly for 2012 from 7 percent to 7.5 percent. The media tablet production forecast has been lowered from 110 million to 107 million in 2012, although this is still a 63 percent increase from 2011," it said further.

Gartner analysts said that as smartphones ramp up in volume, they will dominate 2012 semiconductor growth.

"The DRAM market is on pace to decline 26 percent in 2011, and the market will return to growth when global DRAM revenue is forecast to increase 3 percent in 2012. NAND flash is the expected to be the fastest-growing device in 2012 with 16.6 percent growth because of strong growth in mobile consumer devices," Gartner said.

"Our latest forecast analysis shows that dollar growth in smartphones, media tablets and solid-state drives in total will generate 77 percent of semiconductor market growth through 2015 — clearly a very significant concentration of opportunity," said Mr. Lewis.