Chart of the Day: Take a look at the worrying drop in Singapore casinos’ VIP volumes in 1H14

A turnaround is unlikely for the city's gaming giants.

Singapore’s casinos are struggling with a steady and worrying decline in VIP volumes. This trend is caused by a confluence of factors--the stunning decline in Chinese tourist arrivals is to blame, as well as the increasing number of new casinos in other Southeast Asian nations.

Macquarie Research revealed that Singapore’s VIP volumes dipped 10% year-on-year in the first half of the year. In 1H14, the country earned US$57b from VIP gamblers, down from US$63b in 1H13.

“Chinese tourist arrivals which make up >50% of SG’s VIP volumes are declining significantly Chinese tourist arrivals doubled in 3 years from 2010 to 2013 at a CAGR of 25%. We attribute this growth to the opening of casinos in Singapore. However, in the first 7 months of 2014, Chinese tourist arrivals are down significantly by 29% YoY leading to decline in VIP volumes (-10% in 1H14),” said Macquarie.  

The report further noted that the advent of new Asian casino's is not going to help Singapore's fortunes when it comes to attracting wealthy gamblers, and that local casinos will have a hard time ahead as regional competition heats up.

According to Macquarie, "In Asia, there is a growing population of high net worth individuals (HNWIs) regionally amid the shortage in the supply of integrated resort style gaming facilities. As indicated in the figure below, HNWI wealth is up 33% from 2007-12 in Asia ex-Japan. We think there is a high probability of SG casinos’ VIP clientele cannibalization by new casinos in Asia."