Beginner’s bad luck: Genting’s Jeju JV still stuck in the doldrums

The $2.2bn casino may be a lost gamble.

Genting Singapore’s planned casino in Jeju Island may well be a foolhardy bet, as the 598-acre land originally bought for the project has been designated for healthcare and education investment by the Jeju Development Corporation.

While the land may be redesignated with the upcoming election of Jeju’s new governor, CIMB warns that Genting would still have to deal with stiff resistance from NGOs.

According to CIMB, “The worst-case scenario is for GENS to withdraw from the JV and write off the S$194m invested or sit on the land and wait for a breakthrough in licencing. In the JV transaction, GENS has valued the land at US$18 psf, which is near market price and a 29% premium over what Landing originally paid for it inclusive of US$200m in infrastructure costs.”

Here’s more from CIMB:

Following our channel checks, we believe that securing a casino licence or injecting an existing licence into the Landing-GENS JV could be challenging.

This is because the 598-acre site that was originally bought by Landing and injected into the JV has been earmarked for healthcare and education investment, according to the Jeju Development Corporation (JDC).

We remain optimistic about GENS’s chances in potential Japanese liberalisation, which is a key catalyst. If the current political situation between Japan and China is protracted, it could give GENS and US companies an advantage.

The Genting group will also be the only Asian company with a US$4bn Las Vegas IR and we believe its US and global presence will invariably help its chances in Japan.