4 shocking scenarios that could happen in the corporate clash for F&N's stakes at APB

Here are possible scenarios after Thai Bev related party offers a higher bid of S$55 per share for F&N's APB shares.

According to Nomura, in a new twist to the corporate action at F&N, Kindest Place Groups Ltd (KPG), a related party of Thai Bev, has offered to buy F&N’s direct 7.3% stake in APB at S$55 per share. The offer will lapse on 16 August 2012.

Here's more from Nomura:

Recall that KPG had only recently acquired a direct 8.6% stake in APB from OCBC-related companies at S$45 per share. Even before shareholders can vote on Heineken’s offer of S$50 per share for all the shares owned by F&N in APB, the TCC group has responded with this move. We see four possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: If Heineken’s S$50 offer is an all-or-nothing offer, then F&N may have to politely turn down KPG’s offer even though its offer price is higher.

Scenario 2: Heineken may just match KPG’s offer to avoid further complications.

Scenario 3: If F&N is able to accept KPG’s higher offer for its direct 7.3% stake in APB and Heineken does not counter offer but proceeds to acquire the APB shares owned by F&N through its joint venture Asia Pacific Investment, Heineken will trigger a general offer for APB, as it will effectively own about 75% of APB. It will probably end up with about 85% assuming KGL does not want to tender its shares to Heineken. That would put KGL at a disadvantageous position to own 16% in an unlisted company.

Scenario 4: If Thai Bev is really keen on APB, it may, in concert with KPG, make a general offer for F&N even before shareholders get to vote on Heineken’s offer. This assumes that the TCC group has sufficient resources to make a general offer for F&N. Under this scenario, Heineken may be forced to make a counteroffer for F&N.