Currency Briefing - what you need to know for Wed May 9, 2012

The local currency is trading below the $1.25 threshold against the US dollar.

IG Markets Singapore said:

The Singapore dollar is again trading below the $1.25 threshold against the greenback despite another strong flight to safety among international investors.

Fears of Greece exiting the eurozone have reached their highest levels since the financial crisis began in 2008.

The elected parties are unhappy with the terms signed up to in order to secure the second bailout package and want to rip them up.

This has spooked markets and knocked risk-on trading firmly into touch.
But the Singapore Dollar has remained fairly resilient to the turn in sentiment and trades at $1.2488 this morning.

Euro volatility is likely to dominate currency markets this week which will also have a knock-on effect on Asian currencies.

RBS meanwhile noted (for 8 May 2012 trading):

The USD recorded modest gains during a muted risk-seeking session as uncertainty surrounding the Greek political situation persisted.

While the higher beta currencies weakened versus the USD with equities down for the entire session, USD/JPY remained below 79.90 for most of the session.

But while Greek politics is likely keeping risk-seeking sentiment low, for now we note in our latest Global Currency Weekly that given the stability in short-term EU periphery sovereign rates and relative stability of financial conditions in the EU and US, for now it appears markets are viewing the increased possibility of a Greek EUR exit as an isolated event.

If that continues, it remains unlikely that the weekend elections across Europe will have a material, lasting negative impact on the EUR. Instead, we look for the catalyst to a broadly weaker EUR to come from ECB policy easing during 2H2012.