Why China shouldn't get all the blame for Singapore manufacturing slowdown

There's the US, too.

According to Deutsche Bank, a fairly tight relationship is seen over an extended period for Singapore’s IP and US PMI, but in the past year or so the strength in the US has not been reflected in Singapore’s data (See Figure 1).

A ready answer to the puzzle is weak growth in China and EU, which would be dragging down Singapore’s performance even if the US demand is strong.

But when one considers Singapore’s exports only to the US, the picture is not any better. Just like the broader data, the trend is not worsening, rather flat, with months of sharp declines followed by modest recoveries, which then lose steam quickly.

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Could it be that US import dependence is declining as low energy prices (thanks to the shale revolution) are revitalizing manufacturing there, or are there some complexities associated with software and hardware upgrade cycle at play?

We don't know the answer, but the trend does not seem favorable for Singapore, or any of Asia’s export dependent economies. 

Deutsche Bank stressed, however, that Singapore’s economic momentum keeps slipping, contrary to expectations of an export-based recovery.