What to expect from tomorrow's export figure release

After a massive 10.6% drop in August NODX figure,  what could be next?

According to DBS Research, a rebound is expected for Sep12 non-oil domestic export (NODX) figure due tomorrow morning.  This, it said, will certainly provide some respite after a streak of poor economic numbers in recent months.

"The headline number shuold print a 2.5% YoY rise after a massive 10.6% drop in the previous month. On the sequential basis, we look for a rebound of about 5-6% MoM sa after a 9.1% plunge in the previous month," it said.

Here's more from DBS:

 Weakness in electronics demand and plant shutdowns in the biomedical segment have jointly delivered poor export and industrial production figures over the last two months. But the effects of the festive season demand may start to kick in from September onwards. This could bring about better electronics sales. Though the effect will be transient for just 2-3 months, any form of boost will help given the weak global demand thus far.

Separately, production has been sluggish in the biomedical segment over the last two months as a result of the industry specific down-cycle. A strong rebound should not be discounted given the volatile nature of this industry. And that could provide significant lift to the headline NODX figure.