Singapore’s NODX to push past official 2024 forecast, UOB

Base effects relied on for NODX recovery

Singapore is poised to expand its non-oil domestic exports (NODX) above the official growth forecast for next year, largely due to low base effects, according to UOB Group.

The report boasts a 6% projection for the city-state’s NODX expansion in 2024, this is higher than the official forecast range of 2% to 4% by Enterprise Singapore.

Recovery in NODX is expected to be primarily steered by base effects given the sharp double-digit year-on-year (YoY) decline seen from November 2022 to September this year. NODX has been sliding throughout the first 11 months of the year.

“Headwinds persist given the still weak external backdrop on tight financial conditions stemming from an elevated interest rate environment,” the report stated.

READ MORE: Non-oil domestic exports rise 1.0% YoY in November

This follows the report by Enterprise Singapore of a 1% YoY gain in November for the overall NODX, the first in over a year since September 2022.

The electronics trade cycle had also likely bottomed out, with recovery expected in the next few quarters through base effects.