Singapore's March NODX likely to shrink 5.1%

Here are possible risks to NODX growth.

According to DBS, the non-oil domestic export figure for Mar13 due tomorrow morning will turn out mixed. The headline year-on-year figure will likely remain in the red again although it’ll be significantly better than the previous month’s 30% drop.

"As we’ve pointed out before, February’s number is highly distorted due to base, seasonal, currency and industry specific factors. Nevertheless, this coming set of
figures will still be weighed down by a fairly high base, which explains why we have a forecast of -5.1% YoY," DBS said.

Nonetheless, the focus should be on the month-on-month number. Market is eyeing for a 4.0% MoM sa increase although risk is definitely on the upside.

Here's more from DBS:

A growth pace that is double what consensus is currently looking at should not come as a surprise. It’s partly technical payback and partly due to a possible upswing in pharmaceutical exports.

The synchronised plant closures in Feb13 have affected overall production as producers switched to different product mixes.

And when productions resume, they usually come back with a vengeance. This will surely help to ease some of the earlier concerns about the weak GDP growth in the current quarter.

Pockets of risk remain in the global economy. But economic conditions and general outlook are improving. And as we’ve highlighted time and again, the higher frequency data will turn better from March onwards.

So hopefully this set of NODX figures will live up to expectation and provide a glimpse of the better things to come.