Singaporeans' medium-term inflation expectations dips to 2.93%

SMU said there is a downward trend towards the outlook on price changes.

Singaporeans' medium-term inflation expectations dipped to 2.93% in September 2017, reflecting a downward trend since March 2017, according to the Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics (SKBI) at Singapore Management University (SMU).

The findings of SKBI's latest survey for the Singapore Index of Inflation Expectations (SInDEx) showed that the medium term headline inflation dropped from 3.23% in June 2017 to 2.93%.

Compared to the historical median headline inflation expectations since September 2011 average of 3.46%, the current medium-term headline inflation is still lower, but it is higher than the recent third quarter average of 2.78%.

SKBI also said, excluding accommodation and private road transportation-related costs, the medium term Singapore core inflation expectations was recorded at 2.89% in September 2017, nearly a 0.5 drop from its June 2017 value of 3.37%.

For a subgroup of the population who own their accommodation and use public transport, the medium term Singapore core inflation rate for the subgroup also dropped significantly to 2.88% in September 2017 compared to 3.54% polled in June 2017.

"This subgroup’s expectations of core inflation closely resembles the Singapore Core Inflation Expectations, as unlike the general population they are not exposed to private transport or private accommodation expenses," SKBI said.

"These results indicate that there seems to be a short-term downward trend in the perception of future overall price changes representing the Singapore core inflation rate that excludes housing and private road transportation," it added.