Singapore hikes 2021 trade, NODX outlooks as quarterly figures improve

Enterprise Singapore expects growth of non-oil domestic exports to fall between the 1.0%-3.0% range for the full year.

Singapore’s first quarter trade performance was “better-than-expected,” according to Enterprise Singapore (ESG), leading to a more optimistic view of full year trade figures.

In its review of the first quarter trade performance, Enterprise Singapore increased its full-year non-oil domestic exports (NODX) outlook to 1.0% to 3.0% from the previous 0.0% to 2.0% extimate.

This was due to the 9.7% increase in NODX recorded for the first quarter, following a 0.5% decline in the quarter previous. Both electronic and non-electronic NODX rose in the first quarter, by 14.8% and 8.3% respectively.

ESG likewise increased its total merchandise trade growth projection to 5.0% to 7.0% from the previous 2.0% to 4.0%, as total merchandise trade rebounded from its 5.1% decline in the last quarter of 2020 to a 4.9% increase in the first quarter of 2021.

The performance hikes were both based on robust semiconductor demand, strong exports in economies like Taiwan, and improved oil prices.

However, the ESG noted that uncertainties remain in the global economy.It noted that the International Monetary Fund’s global growth outlook of 6.0% in 2021 hinged on vaccine-powered recovery. On the trade front, the World Trade Organization expects 2021 merchandise trade volumes to rebound from the 5.3% decline for the full year of 2020 to a growth of 8.0% in 2021.