Singapore economy will only grow 3% in 2013: Maybank

GDP forecast slashed from more upbeat 5% after discouraging August NODX results.

It also cut down its 2012 real GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 3%.

Here's more from Maybank Kim Eng:

NODX in Aug 2012 fell -10.6% YoY (Jul 2012: +5.7% YoY; Consensus: -4.0% YoY). The first decline in five months was due to lower shipments of both electronic and non-electronic products. From the previous month, the seasonally adjusted NODX dropped by -9.1% (Jul 2012: -3.6% MoM). For the first eight months of this year, NODX grew by a sluggish +2.9% YoY (Jan-Aug 2011: +5.1% YoY). Taking cue from the slower NODX growth YTD, we have trimmed 2012 real GDP growth to 2.5% from 3% previously and expect growth to pick up slightly to 3% in 2013 compared with 5% previously.

Electronics exports declined by -11.0% YoY (Jul 2012: +2.0% YoY), dragged by the third consecutive month of deepening double-digit fall in Parts of PC’s (Aug 2012: -21.5% YoY; Jul 2012: -17.1% YoY) and Diodes & Transistors (Aug 2012: -34.7% YoY; Jul 2012: -27.3% YoY).

Non-electronic exports contracted by -10.4% YoY (Jul 2012: +7.8% YoY) on lower shipments of Pharmaceuticals (Aug 2012: -3.2% YoY; Jul 2012: +1.3% YoY), which has been volatile since Apr 2012 after posting strong double-digit growth in the first three months of the year. However, the biggest drags last month’s non-electronic exports were Structures of Ships & Boats (Aug 2012: -87% YoY) and Primary Chemicals (Aug 2012: -19% YoY) as weaker global economic conditions dampened demand.

Uneven global economy showing up in the numbers. Exports to EU slumped by -28.7% YoY (Jul 2012: -1.5% YoY) as recessionary pressures intensifies in the aftermath of the prolonged Eurozone sovereign debt crisis. Meanwhile, exports to China which accounted for 12% of overall NODX in Aug 2012 contracted for the fourth time in the past five months (Aug 2012: -4.4% YoY; Jul 2012: +8.0% YoY), underpinning the slowing economic growth momentum there. In contrast, the four successive months of declines in NODX to the US appeared to be stabilizing last month (Aug 2012: +0.7% YoY; Jul 2012: -15.6% YoY) while shipments to other key Asian markets rose, namely Japan (Aug 2012: +6.4% YoY; Jul 2012: -7.0% YoY), South Korea (Aug 2012: +6.6% YoY; Jul 2012: +24.5% YoY), Taiwan (Aug 2012: +16.7% YoY; Jul 2012: +31.0% YoY), Hong Kong (Aug 2012: +5.3% YoY.