Singapore’s November PMI may turn out worse than expected

Pullback expected after the Christmas season.

Market expectation is for the headline number to ease a tad to 51.6, from 51.9 in the previous month. Risk is that it could turn out worse than expected.

According to DBS, external outlook has been tepid and most recent PMIs of key Asian economies have all slipped. In fact, conditions in the external environment seem to suggest that the uptick in the previous month could be just a one-off.

The spikes in PMIs in the previous month are merely synonymous with the increase in orders in the run-up towards the year end festive season. Orders and production typically picks up ahead of the Christmas season. But such seasonal effect is transient in nature. Output level is expected to ease off in the next 2 In addition, the index for new export orders for electronics has dipped despite the higher headline figures. The uptick in the electronics PMI was also boosted mainly by a surge in the finished goods index. This reflects an increase in stockpile, which subsequently has to be run down and typically at the expense of production. Lastly, the order backlog indexes have unanimously fallen, implying a lack of fresh orders in the pipeline.

In short, a pullback in the PMIs is expected after the seasonal effect expires. Global outlook hasn’t improved a bit since the start of the year.