Singapore’s export figure might be headed for its steepest drop in three years: report

Pharmaceuticals remain a wild card.

Analysts fear that Singapore will report a steep decline in exports when it reports its headline non-oil domestic exports (NODX) figure for March.

According to DBS, export sales are expected to plunge by 17.1% year-on-year. This will probably be the steepest yearly decline since February 2013, DBS noted.

In particular, DBS highlighted that the surge in pharmaceutical exports which drove last month’s NODX uptick is unlikely to be sustainable.

“Chances are not high given the volatile nature of the pharmaceutical industry. Moreover, the pharmaceutical sector is the least integrated industry within the economy. With all its ups and downs, it has little impact on the rest of the economy except on headline GDP growth,” said DBS.

Apart from pharmaceutical volatility, key electronics exports have also remained weak, on back of sluggish global demand.

“Exports to China have been falling and that has been the main drag on overall export performance. In addition, the slowdown in China is structural in nature. And that suggests that the current NODX weakness may persist for a while,” DBS said.