September developer sales rebound but too little too late

FY13 volumes likely to end -30% yoy.

September developer presales rebounded 65% m/m to 1,246 units on 84% more launches, but overall year totals will still end deep in the red, according to Barclays Research.

"While this improvement appears significant vs the 482 and 756 units sold in July and August, respectively, it is below the average monthly 1,658 units in 1H13, and we believe it does not signal a recovery in the market following the implementation of the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) framework on 28 June 2013," said Barclays Research.

"This brings 3Q13 primary sales to 2,484 units, the weakest quarterly sales since 4Q09 (1,860 units); and YTD sales to 12,434 units, -31% y/y," it added.

"We expect FY13 volumes to decline 30% to 15,500, and private home prices to fall 5% in 2014, and -5 to -15% in 2015 on rising mortgage rates, coinciding with peak supply completions amidst a weak secondary market," it said further.