Possible recession in H1 23 is likely a ‘shallow one:’ RHB

This despite the further stress predicted in the first half of 2023.

It is possible that Singapore’s externally-facing sectors may see further stress next year on the back of the weakening global economic outlook, RHB, said.

“Although not our base case, the balance of risks is tilted towards a technical recession in 2023,” it said in a brokerage report.

It cited the shrinking of the electronic exports from August to September, which will likely continue next year. Manufacturing activities in electronics and chemicals will also decline further over the same period.

Echoing the government, RHB said the recovery in travel and tourist arrivals next year will help boost growth in aviation and tourism-related sectors, such as retail and food and beverage. 

With these factors, RHB said the technical recession next year will be “short, shallow, and orderly.”

The research analyst said it is projecting that the economy in the market will slow down next year.

The Ministry of Trade and Industry said it is seeing economic growth to ease in 2022 and 2023. As this happened, the Singapore economy eased by 4.1% on a year-on-year basis from the 4.5% increase in the preceding quarter.