Outlook is bleak for Asian exports

What the numbers say: In value terms, Asian exports slowed but continued to grow at double-digit year-on-year rate. But in volume terms (which strips out the price and exchange rate effects), data from Taiwan and Korea shows that exports are slowing very sharply.

What they mean: Exports are a key source of income for Asia and are a primary determinant of the Asian business cycle. You can rank importance of exports for economies by looking at the export-to-GDP ratio. In general, Singapore and Hong Kong are affected the most by the trade cycle; India and Indonesia the least.

12-month outlook: We expect low single-digit export growth next year. Leading indicators, in particular the US ISM, and import demand from China are heading south after the strong patch in 2H10.