Non-oil domestic exports may have dropped 1.2% in November

Base effect likely masks ongoing export weakness
International Enterprise Singapore will announce non-oil domestic exports for November on 16 December. We expect the headline NODX print to remain in negative territory at -1.2% y/y.

Similarly, electronic exports likely contracted further to -9.3% y/y. The very favourable base effect, owing to falls in the headline NODX and electronics exports of -14.3% m/m and 21.2% m/m, respectively, in November 2010, may be helping to mask the ongoing weakness in NODX.

The broader environment remains challenging. China’s PMI has fallen below 50, the US semiconductor book-to-bill ratio remains well below 1.0, and domestic industrial production (ex-bio) has continued to contract, on a y/y basis. On a slightly more positive note, domestic PMI numbers may be indicating a near-term floor in export data, with the 3mma new export orders PMI appearing to have troughed since July 2011.