NODX grows 18.4% in December 2021

The record surpassed Bloomberg's estimate of 13.5%.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) grew by 18.4% year-on-year (YoY) in December 2021, surpassing market expectations.

Bloomberg’s median consensus was 13.5%, while CGS-CIMB’s forecast was 11.4%.

The expansion, however, was lower compared to November 2021’s increase of 24.2%.

Enterprise Singapore said the growth in NODX was mainly due to non-electronic products which increased by 19.9% YoY, but electronic products also grew over the year by 13.6%.

Pharmaceuticals, specialised machinery, and petrochemicals had the most contribution to the growth in non-electronic NODX, whilst ICs (17.8% YoY), PCS (32.5% YoY), and disk media products (12.2% YoY) drove the increase in electronic NODX.

“We project exports of specialised machinery to remain robust this year, as global chip manufacturers scramble to shore up supply to meet demand by investing heavily in production facilities,” CGS-CIMB said.

“Meanwhile, we expect petrochemicals exports to continue recovering from the global downcycle of the past two years, thanks to a return in global demand,” the analyst added.

Meanwhile, CGS-CIMB said that whilst electronics NODX slowed down in December 2021 compared to November (29.2%), they still believe that it will remain robust in the near term.

“South Korea's First-10-Days Semiconductor exports for Jan (which provides a preliminary outlook over global electronics demand for the month) seems to point to a sustained upward trend for electronics,” the analyst said.

“In addition, Singapore’s Electronics Sector PMI rebounded higher in December to 51 from 50.8 in November, highlighting easing concerns over the impact of Omicron and supply chain problems,” they added.

Over the long term basis, CGS-CIMB said Singapore’s NODX growth will be boosted by the global chip shortage which the analyst expects to be extended until 2023F.

Amongst the markets, the largest contributors to the rise in NODX were China (36.3%), Indonesia (66.1%), and the EU 27 (32.5%).

On the other hand, NODX to the US and South Korea declined by 25.6% YoY, and 16.4% YoY, respectively.

CGS-CIMB said the decline in NODX to the US was “likely due to supply chain issues in the country.”

“The US ISM Manufacturing index fell to 58.7 in December 2021 from 61.1 in November 2021 due to record-long waiting periods for raw materials and capital equipment, continued shortages of critical lowest-tier materials, high commodity prices, and difficulties
in transporting products,” the analyst explained.

Meanwhile, non-oil retained imports of intermediate goods also grew on a seasonally adjusted basis by $0.7b to $7.1b in December 2021.

Total trade likewise grew over the year by 31.4% in December 2021, with total exports rising by 28% and total imports expanding by 35.4%.