Hopes escalate for a gradual improvement in Singapore exports

Export sales went up 8%.

According to DBS, finally, there is a glimmer of hope after months of disappointment. The non-oil domestic export figure out yesterday morning shows that export sales increased 8% MoM sa, up from a decline of 2.5% in the previous month. 

"This is much in line with our expectation as we had pointed out in our earlier write-up that the final outcome is expected to be about double what consensus (4% moM sa) was looking at previously," DBS said.

Here's more from DBS:

Although, that still translates into a 4.8% YoY decline (DBSf: 5.1%). We had also highlighted that this is as a result of the relatively high base in the same period last year.

The focus is on the month-on-month number and it is suggesting a turn in the current export cycle. Although the outlook may still be bumpy, a gradual improvement is expected in the coming months.

The industrial production index for March will likely see a rebound from the slump in February and this makes for better GDP growth in the quarter.

That is, an upward revision in the first quarter GDP is on the cards, judging from today’s figures. In addition, electronics exports are now back on trend after hitting a soft patch in February due to the Chinese New Year lull.

And key indicators for the electronics industry such as the SEMI book-to-bill ratio and global semiconductor sales numbers are all pointing to an expansion in this industry in the coming months.