Here's how tech domestic exports dragged Singapore's December NODX

Tech DX contracted by 3.1%.

According to CIMB, NODX ended 2013 on an optimistic note, rising 6.0% yoy in Dec, a turnaround from Nov’s -8.9% yoy. CIMB noted that there was no reprieve from tech again (33% of NODX), although its drag on
NODX is weakening after 17 consecutive months of yoy falls.

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Tech DX contracted 3.1% yoy last month, the smallest yoy decline in over a year. The drop in IC DX (43% of tech DX) narrowed to -0.9% yoy, its smallest decline in 15 months while disk-media products (8% of tech DX) fell 8.5% yoy, their smallest decline in 14 months.

On the other hand, PC DX (referring to mainframe servers; 12% of tech DX) rose 19.8% yoy. Another bright spot was DX of “parts of ICs” (10% of tech DX), which rose 29.4% yoy.

For 2013, tech DX contracted 11.3% (2012: -4.1%, 2011: -11.6%), led by a 15.0% fall in the top 5 products (76% of tech DX, -6.9% in 2012, -10.2% in 2011). On the positive side, we saw stronger growth in PCs, parts of ICs and encouragingly, consumer electronics.

The latter (2.3% of tech DX) rose 1.4% in 2013 (2012: -2.9%, 2011: -29.5%). PC DX rose 50.3% (+5.3% in 2012) while “parts of IC” DX rose 12% (-19.6% in 2012).

Non-tech DX to the rescue…
After Nov’s unexpectedly poor showing (-8.9% yoy due to similar yoy falls in tech and non-tech DX), the market was expecting only 1.0% yoy growth for Dec (CIMB: +1.6%), with a depressed year-ago base of -16.3% yoy the main reason for their expectation of any growth at all.

Actual growth of 6.0% yoy thus came as a positive surprise, spearheaded by a stronger non-tech DX recovery. Led by stronger chemicals (+6.1% yoy vs. Nov 13’s -17.5% yoy) and an undemanding base of comparison (Dec 12: -14.8% yoy), non-tech DX (67% of NODX) recovered 10.6% yoy, the best in over a year.

Credit must go to petrochemicals (+39.8% yoy) and the “structure of ships & boats” (+708.7% yoy), which offset another month of pharma drag (-18.7% in Dec vs. Nov’s 46.9%). For 2013, non-tech DX contracted 3.3% (+3.0% in 2012, +11.7% in 2011).