Gov’t upgrades 2024 NODX forecast to 4.0%-6.0%

In 2023, NODX fell 13.1% YoY.

With global electronics demand expected to gradually recover this year, the government has upgraded its 2024 growth forecast for Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) to 4.0%-6.0%.

“Since the last update, a net weighted balance of 16% of firms in the electronics cluster projected improved business prospects for the period January to June 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023,” Enterprise Singapore said.

“Accounting for an expected recovery in the electronics cycle, both total trade and NODX are projected to pick up in 2024,” the agency added.

In 2023, NODX fell 13.1% YoY due to lower shipments of both electronic (-19.7%) and non-electronic products (-11.1%).

“Electronics exports drove 34% of NODX’s decline in 2023, disproportionately higher than its 23% share of NODX in 2022,” Enterprise Singapore commented.

Apart from an expected uptick in electronics, the agency said improved global activity will help boost Singapore’s NODX.

“The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that global economic activity will grow by 3.1% in 2024. This was up from the previous 2.9% estimate in October 2023, reflecting the upgrade in growth outlook for most of Singapore’s key trade partners, including China, the US and ASEAN-5,” Enterprise Singapore said.

“Overall, the IMF expects global growth to be resilient in 2024, after 2023’s growth (similarly at 3.1%)11.   31. On the trade front, the IMF projected higher world trade volume growth in 2024 (+3.3%) than in 2023 (+0.4%). Similarly, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) expected global merchandise trade to grow faster in 2024 (+3.3%) than in 2023 (+0.8%),” the agency added.