Exports could slip as electronics momentum cool down in H2 2018

The US-China trade war could also hit Singapore's export if the threatened US$50b tariffs push through.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) could face slow down in the second half of the year due to a slowdown in the momentum of electronics exports, Maybank KE said.

“The puzzling divergence between electronics exports and production persist, with NODX declining by -7.6% in the first four months of 2018 whilst industrial production surged by +17% over the same period,” 

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth rose +15.5% in May due to non-electronics with a leading growth rate of +26.2%. According to Maybank, Singapore’s NODX rise is mainly due to G3 economies (US, Japan, European Union) in the recent months despite NODX’s decline in Asia.

Singapore’s export could also be hit by the escalating US-China trade war if the two countries decide to push the threatened tariffs on US$50b ($68b), a Maybank Kim Eng report forecasted.

The firm also noted that non-electronics jumped for a second month, driven by civil engineering equipment parts, food preparations (+133%) and pharmaceuticals (+32%).

Also read: Volatile pharma and food could dent NODX growth in May

“For Singapore, services, as well as services export growth, will be more resilient and support growth for the rest of 2018,” Maybank analysts said.