Experts expect economy to grow 4.8% in Q2

The full-year growth forecast was lowered to 3.8% from 4%.

Economists and analysts expect Singapore’s economy to grow by 4.8% in the second quarter of 2022, higher than the 3.7% year-on-year expansion in the first three months of the year, according to a survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

For the full-year forecast, however, experts expect the gross domestic product (GDP) to expand by 3.8%, down from the 4% in the survey in March.

The survey showed that the manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 4.6%, up from the 4.1% in the March survey, whilst the finance and insurance sector will expand by 3.8%, down from 4.1%.

The construction sector is also seen to grow by 5.9%, down from 9% in the previous survey. The wholesale and retail trade is expected to rise by 3%, down from 3.7%, whilst the accommodation and food services sector will grow by 7%, lower than the 9.1% growth forecast in the March survey.

Private consumption, another key macroeconomic indicator, is expected to grow by 6.6%, an increase from 4.5% in the last survey, whilst the non-oil domestic exports full-year growth forecast was at 6.3%, down from 7.8%.

GDP is expected to expand by 3% in 2023.

Read also: Economy ‘moderately’ increases by 3.7% YoY in Q1: MTI

The “sharper-than-expected” rise in inflation mainly due to the higher energy and food prices, was the most-cited downside risk to Singapore’s growth outlook. 

They were also concerned about the downside risks from the slower economic activity in China and the weaker-than-expected global growth driven in part by major economies such as the US and the Eurozone.

On the other hand, robust growth in China supported by macroeconomic policy easing and economic re-opening was also frequently cited as an upside risk to Lion City’s growth.

Accelerated resumption in travel and tourism-driven by ongoing border re-openings and stronger-than-expected expansion in manufacturing output was flagged as upside risks.

The June 2022 Survey sent out on 25 May reflects the views of the 24 respondents