Economists uphold 2.4% full-year GDP growth for Singapore in Q2

Next year, they expect the economy to grow by 2.5%.

Despite a stronger-than-forecast expansion in Q1 2024, economists and analysts held their 2.4% full-year economic growth prediction for Singapore in Q2 2024.

The MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters indicated that whilst the 2.4% full-year GDP growth prediction remained steady, the "composition of growth drivers has changed."

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Experts particularly downgraded their growth forecast for manufacturing, from 4.0% to 1.6%, and construction, from 4.9% to 3.8%.

Forecasters also cut its growth forecast for non-oil domestic exports from 6.0% to 4.0%.

Based on MAS’ mean probability distribution of 2024 GDP growth forecasts, Singapore’s economy will likely grow by 2.0% to 2.4% this year.

By 2025, experts predict GDP to expand by 2.5%.

“Their forecasts of the most probable outcome for growth fall between 2.5 and 2.9%, similar to the previous survey. The average probability assigned to the range is 34%, up slightly from 33% previously,” MAS said.

Meanwhile, economists and analysts have lowered its expected CPI-All Items (headline) inflation growth for 2024 to 2.8%. In the March survey, they predicted a 3.1% headline inflation for 2024.

Their forecast from MAS Core Inflation remained at 3.0%. As for the labour market, the respondents expect the unemployment rate to be 2.1% at year-end.

In 2025, experts predict that headline and MAS core inflation will ease to 2.1% and 2.0%, respectively.

“The respondents assigned the highest probability to the 2.0 to 2.4% range for both CPI-All Items and MAS Core Inflation,” the survey added.