Economists optimistic about NODX rebound despite August contraction

NODX fell 4.7% MoM in August.

Economists remain optimistic about the rebound of non-oil domestic exports (NODX) despite sequential contraction in August.

In August, NODX fell by 4.7% month-on-month (MoM) and posted slower year-on-year growth of 10.7%.

RHB stated it is not concerned about the MoM decline for three reasons: strong electronics exports, a recovery in pharmaceutical exports, and ongoing global growth.

RHB added that global growth will likely continue to support ASEAN's export-oriented economic structure despite property-related risks in China.

UOB is also upbeat about NODX’s recovery, anticipating a meaningful sequential rebound in Q4 2024.

It has also nudged its full-year 2024 NODX growth forecast slightly higher, from 2.5% to 3.0%.

Nomura reported that NODX growth averaged 13.3% year-on-year in July-August, a sharp rise from -6.5% in Q2, supported by a significant improvement in electronics exports.