Economist lowers Q2 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.6% YoY

The forecast is lower than the government’s advance estimate of a 2.9% YoY growth.

Experts from RHB have lowered their Q2 2024 growth forecast for Singapore to 2.6% YoY following a contraction in manufacturing output in June.

In June, manufacturing output decreased by 3.9% YoY.

RHB’s estimate is lower than the forecast of the Ministry of Trade & Industry (MTI) advance GDP estimate of 2.9% YoY.

RHB maintained its full-year GDP growth forecast at 2.5% despite a lower Q2 outlook but warned of potential downside risks.

“We believe manufacturers’ confidence may take a more cautious tone from now on, especially given the higher probability of a Trump-win in the upcoming 60th US Presidential elections, which could translate into the deterioration of risk appetite into China and ASEAN, and lift global inflation from primary and secondary effects from US-centric protectionistic policies,” RHB said.