Consumer loan growth slipped to 11.7% in September

No thanks to stall in auto loans.

According to OCBC, advance Q3 GDP growth beat expectations at +5.1% yoy (-1.0% qoq saar), while the Q2 growth was revised higher to +4.2% yoy (+16.9% qoq saar), which makes the higher end of the official 2.5-3.5% growth forecast likely achievable (our forecast: 3.3%). 

MAS also kept its monetary policy stance unchanged at the October review, with the focus remaining on underlying core inflationary pressures, due to tight labor market and anticipated higher pass-through of costs to consumer prices.

Here's more from OCBC:

Meanwhile, the Q3 unemployment rate unexpectedly fell 2.1% in Q2 to 1.8%, the lowest since Q4 2012, while bank loans growth also reaccelerated to 15.7% yoy in Sep, led mainly by business loans (+18.6% yoy), particularly the building/construction and general commerce.

Consumer loans growth moderated to 11.7% yoy in Sep, mainly dragged down by auto loans (-10.3% yoy), while housing loans also decelerated to 12.9% yoy (albeit it rose 0.7% mom) amid cooling measures.

However, the business expectations surveys for the next 6 motnhs were less optimistic for manufacturers (-1%) and services (+8%) compared to a quarter ago, with the most pessimistic industries being electronics (-14%) and real estate sector (-16%).

The 2014 SGS bond issuance calendar is dominated by re-openings, with the exception of 2 new issues, namely the 15-year in July 2014 and 5-year in October 2014. In addition, there is no 30-year SGS bond issue scheduled in 2014, which should mitigate any longer-dated supply risk.