CIMB slashes NODX forecast with export recovery slow to take effect

From 1-2% growth to a 3-4% contraction.

"Given the slow recovery and despite a projected NODX rebound of 6-9% yoy in 4Q13, we cut our 2013 NODX growth forecast from 1-2% to -4% to -3% yoy," said CIMB.

IE Singapore's forecast is 0-1% growth.

The forecast reduction was triggered by the September NODX results.

NODX shrank 1.2% yoy in Sep (-6.8% in Aug 2013) vs. consensus and our forecasts of -2.8% and -1.6% yoy, respectively.

"The 'less bad' NODX showing for the past two months narrowed the 3Q13 and 9M13 NODX declines to -3.3% and -7.1%, respectively, from 1H13’s -9.0% yoy," said CIMB.

The research firm said October does not hold much promise to turn NODX growth around.

"Unless non-tech comes to the rescue again, the NODX decline may widen in Oct 13 due to the base effect (Oct 12 NODX: +7.9% yoy)," it said.