Chart of the Day: NODX up 14.7% in January-February

Thanks to the meaningful pick-up in non-oil domestic exports to China.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 14.7% year-on-year in January-February, compared to -5.4% in the same period last year, noted Standard Chartered. It said recent economic data from Singapore and the region has been encouraging, with Q4- 2016 GDP growth ending on a high note at 2.9% yoy. Meanwhile the manufacturing PMI reading stayed in expansionary territory for a sixth consecutive month in February.

"Industrial production rose 7.9% yoy in the first two months of the year, a marked improvement from -1.0% a year ago. The recent pick-up in Asia’s export performance also supports optimism for Singapore’s growth (given that Singapore’s trade accounts for 350% of its GDP)," reported Standard Chartered.

Here's more from Standard Chartered:

We had expected this export recovery last year. Our optimism was based on price effects (on a yoy basis). We believe any sign of a sustainable pick-up in volume will be more important. We maintain our cautious H2-2017 growth outlook for now, for the following reasons.

First, by destination, only NODX to China (not to the US, EU or China) is picking up meaningfully. We believe China’s stronger demand is due to inventory restocking and that it does not signal growth acceleration.

Second, the pick-up in manufacturing is only in electronics, further concentrated in the integrated circuit segment, suggesting that demand is not broad-based.

Third, downside growth risks still outweigh upside risks. Trade protectionist threats remain, whilst growth in Europe remains susceptible to political risks.