Chart of the Day: Business optimism tumbles to a one-year low in 1Q15

Amid fears of intensifying global headwinds and weaker regional demand.

Local business optimism is off to a cautious start for 2015 amid mounting concerns of an intensification of global political headwinds and softer regional demand in the external-oriented sector. According to Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau (SCCB)’s latest quarterly Business Optimism Index (BOI) study, BOI tumbled significantly from +10.79 percentage points in Q4 2014 to +1.11 percentage points in Q1 2015.

The latest BOI reading marks the second lowest BOI score in 2 years since Q1 2013 when BOI fell into the contractionary region at -0.82 percentage points. Only 3 of six indicators have remained in the expansionary region, which stands in contrast to the previous quarter when 5 business indicators were in the expansionary region. On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, overall BOI score fell sharply from +13.13 percentage points in Q1 2014 to +1.11 percentage points in Q1 2015.

Y-o-y business confidence has worsened with 5 of six business indicators in the contractionary region. Both services and agricultural sectors ranked atop as the two most optimistic sectors while the transportation sector is least optimistic about the outlook for Q1 with 4 of five business indicators in the contractionary region.