Are the odds against Singapore exports in the coming months?

NODX for Nov11 is due this Friday and hope is that it’ll flip back to a positive print after a disappointing -16.2% YoY (-5.9% MoM sa) showing in the previous month. A modest 0.5% YoY rise has been penciled into our forecast on expectation that the low base in November last year will at least provide some technical lift to the headline number. Indeed, the low base last year came largely on account of a plunge in pharmaceutical output and unless sales for this segment dipped drastically again, else a strong showing of about 50% can be expected even if we factor in a sequential decline.

Nonetheless, pharmaceutical is always volatile and does not fairly reflect the underlying conditions of the economy well. Essentially, the export sector is facing tremendous headwinds as the malaise in Europe and the sluggish recovery in the US are taking a huge toll on global demand. Moreover, the electronics industry is still in a slump with hardly any lift from the festive season demand. And Asia consumers are also feeling the chill, with growth in China and key Asia markets expected to report slower growth ahead. In short, the odds are staking up against Singapore’s export performance and that will surely be manifested in the overall manufacturing and GDP growth numbers in the next 1-2 quarters.