NODX decline may persist in 2Q before recovery in 2H, experts warn

RHB expects NODX to decline by around 1.5% YoY.

Experts predict a slow recovery for Singapore's non-oil domestic exports in 2024, with further declines expected in the second quarter.

RHB expects NODX to slow to around 1.5% YoY in 2Q24 following the 9.3% YoY contraction in April.

Despite three consecutive months of NODX decline., UOB and RHB are positive on a recovery or pick-up in 2H24.

RHB said the current contraction is "likely transitory and will fade on the back of China’s recovery."

"We do not discount the possibility of seeing Singapore’s electronic NODX expand by double-digits on YoY terms in 2H24 against the double-digits contraction over the same period last year," RHB said.

"We are clearly witnessing different global ingredients on the horizon; a post-pandemic era, with China seeing clear signs of recovery at this juncture, will help support the ASEAN trade backdrop, including Singapore," RHB added.

UOB is also seeing optimistic recovery prospects in the electronics segment.

"Electronics NODX continued to exhibit incrementally narrower contractions from the weakest reading recorded in May 2023, which reflects the ongoing upturn in the electronics cycle," UOB said.

"Base effects remain favourable for the months of May-August while underlying end-demand fundamentals are intact, driven by the structural boost from generative AI-related applications which have positive spillovers to the consumer segment," UOB added.

Overall, UOB expects a more significant recovery for Singapore's NODX in the latter half of the year.

Despite this, UOB has downgraded its 2024 NODX growth forecast to 4.5% from 6.0%. Meanwhile, RHB predicts a 0.5% growth for the year.