Exports momentum may be slow in Q4: analysts

This may be dragged by the softening demand in East Asia.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) is expected to slow down in the fourth quarter of the year, following a slower growth in the third, RHB reported. 

In a report, RHB linked the projected slower growth of NODX to the softening demand from East Asia. 

“In today’s data, NODX to China and Hong Kong declined in September 2022, extending the fall seen in the previous month,” the report read in part.  

“Meanwhile, China skipped a scheduled release of its September trade data in a rather rare and inexplicable lapse, fuelling concerns that China’s export growth had softened further in the latest reading.”

Singapore’s NODX grew by 3.1% in September 2022, slower than the 11.4% growth seen in the previous month, Enterprise Singapore reported. 

Enterprise Singapore attributed this growth to non-electronics, which increased by 7.6% in September, offset by electronics, which dropped by 10.6% over the same period. 

Read more: Exports growth slows to 3.1% in September

Similarly, Maybank expected the NODX to contract in the fourth quarter as electronics exports continue its fall. 

“Global demand for chips and electronics is falling as rising inflation and interest rates weigh on consumer demand,”  Maybank reported.

“Major chipmakers Samsung, AMD, and TSMC have reported results that widely missed projections and warned of a prolonged downturn.”

Electronics exports declined by 10.6% for the second straight month, particularly weighed down by integrated circuits (-12%), disk media products (-42.7%), parts of PCs (-22.3%), and consumer 

electronics (-11.6%).

Maybank retained its 2022 full year forecast that NODX will grow between 5%-6%, but slashed its 2023 outlook to -4% to -1% from -2% to -1%, previously.

RHB and UOB also maintained their full-year forecast growth of 7% and 5%, respectively.